Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.251244 0.304888 0.370126 0.456274 0.568496 0.711775 9.119166e-01
2025-05-11 0.170266 0.225128 0.299567 0.410654 0.577098 0.825640 1.242180e+00
2025-05-18 0.118401 0.167061 0.238913 0.357241 0.556717 0.899007 1.580640e+00
2025-05-25 0.085259 0.126848 0.192727 0.310789 0.531889 0.963935 1.985320e+00
2025-06-01 0.066971 0.104813 0.168982 0.294125 0.555519 1.143846 2.841525e+00
2025-06-08 0.054038 0.088496 0.150659 0.281882 0.586652 1.379068 4.225913e+00
2025-06-15 0.044944 0.076770 0.137632 0.276356 0.634787 1.720271 6.735920e+00
2025-06-22 0.037919 0.067281 0.126514 0.271623 0.687609 2.161162 1.120586e+01
2025-06-29 0.031365 0.057329 0.111961 0.253832 0.697383 2.500270 1.706238e+01
2025-07-06 0.023949 0.044304 0.087877 0.203796 0.579757 2.202724 1.711362e+01
2025-07-13 0.020860 0.039662 0.081529 0.199344 0.616255 2.703357 2.973127e+01
2025-07-20 0.018879 0.036990 0.079124 0.205474 0.700583 3.677725 6.646884e+01
2025-07-27 0.017138 0.034681 0.077480 0.215245 0.822595 5.405409 2.071572e+02
2025-08-03 0.015341 0.031900 0.073972 0.218031 0.924755 7.583259 7.512518e+02
2025-08-10 0.013456 0.028565 0.068163 0.210451 0.971338 9.657469 2.866928e+03
2025-08-17 0.011773 0.025428 0.062164 0.199738 0.993424 11.838544 1.487695e+04
2025-08-24 0.010701 0.023630 0.059608 0.201864 1.111389 17.257624 1.267881e+06
2025-08-31 0.009778 0.022049 0.057319 0.204341 1.246936 25.945651 NaN
2025-09-07 0.009029 0.020793 0.055731 0.209540 1.428260 42.062168 NaN
2025-09-14 0.008350 0.019608 0.054082 0.213932 1.627039 70.348223 NaN
2025-09-21 0.007558 0.017980 0.050547 0.206958 1.699474 98.915318 NaN
2025-09-28 0.006405 0.015181 0.042446 0.172077 1.381938 73.588658 NaN
2025-10-05 0.005940 0.014283 0.040808 0.172069 1.510976 116.662383 NaN